Heuristic Traps in Recreational Avalanche Accidents: Evidence and Implications
نویسنده
چکیده
Several years ago, my buddy Steve died in an avalanche. It was a stormy day and the avalanche danger was high, but Steve and his partners felt that by choosing a familiar route and carefully managing their exposure, they could stay out of trouble. After all, they were experienced backcountry skiers with avalanche training. Steve, the most skilled of the group, had just visited the area less than a week before.
منابع مشابه
Evidence of heuristic traps in recreational avalanche accidents
Even though people are capable of making decisions in a thorough and methodical way, it appears that most of the time they don’t. A growing body of research suggests that people unconsciously use simple rules of thumb, or heuristics, to navigate the routine complexities of modern life. In this paper, I examine evidence that four of these heuristics – familiarity, social proof, commitment and sc...
متن کاملSupporting Sound Decisions: A Professional Perspective on Recreational Avalanche Accident Prevention in Canada
Relative to recreationists, avalanche professionals in Canada have a high success rate for managing avalanche hazard and making sound decisions in avalanche terrain. This success invites the question: What can be learned from these successes relative to avalanche education, decision support and accident prevention for backcountry recreationists? I surveyed Canadian avalanche professionals using...
متن کاملThe Role of Training in Recreational Avalanche Accidents in the United States
Avalanche education has become widely available in the United States, and yet trained recreationists continue to comprise over a third of avalanche victims. Does avalanche education really make a difference? This study investigated the relationship between avalanche education and victim behavior in 344 recreational U.S. accidents, and found that victims with more avalanche training did in fact ...
متن کاملTerrain and Traumatic Injury in U.s. Avalanche Accidents
Previous studies have investigated the incidence of traumatic injury in avalanche victims. But the relationship between these injuries and the terrain that produces them remains largely unknown. The goal of this study was to examine the prevalence of traumatic injury among historical avalanche victims and to evaluate the correlation with terrain features generally regarded to be traps. An analy...
متن کاملComparing Avalanche Decision Frameworks Using Accident Data from the United States
In recent years, a number of decision-making frameworks have been developed to help European recreationists make better decisions in avalanche terrain. This study evaluated how well these frameworks might perform in North America by comparing four of them (the Reduction Method, NivoTest, Stop-or-Go, and the SnowCard) and one very simple decision strategy (based on obvious clues) against 33 year...
متن کامل